Since September last year, relationship between the U.S. and Iran are steadily developing in the direction of the Cold War to hot . This is not surprising, since this development is beneficial to both warring powers. In the U.S., despite the huge financial injections into the economy, the crisis is still being felt, causing justifiable voters` discontent.
o War has always been the best shunt to redirect mass irritation in the country with its own government not too lean on the external enemy . In addition, the militarization of the economy paradoxically contributes to its development, albeit uneven, but still growth in the current situation is not bad.
o In addition, President Barack Obama is under constant pressure set Deputies say not about the need to protect Israel. Finally, in anticipation of future elections war -the best PR.
o current state of Iran is also beneficial for many reasons . This strengthening of national unity in the face of a common enemy, and the acquisition of a single image of the state, who dared to challenge the United States, and, finally, a wonderful opportunity, even in the case of minor fighting withdraw from the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, under the pretext of higher power interests.
o first and most significant move was the U.S. economic sanctions not only against Iran but against the campaigns leading trade with him . For example, recently imposed sanctions against several companies who dared to cooperate with anti-American. This kind of policy has been quite effective. Economic noose tighter around his neck tightened Tehran: last week, experts have recorded the fall of the national currency of Iran by 20% against the dollar.
o To increase economic pressure, the United States, with the support of the EU embargo Iranian energy plan. A final decision on the embargo will be taken at a meeting of the EU at the end of January this year. But difficulties may arise with Eastern buyers of Iranian oil :
-China buys a fifth of Iran`s oil produced and otherwise protects its supplier, advocating a peaceful resolution of the conflict;
-Japan is yet indecisive position.
o Iran, for its part, has threatened in response to the embargo to block flow of Hormuz, through which flows more than 40% of world oil traffic -from 16 to 19 million barrels per day. For this oil aorta their goods transported Iran, Iraq, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
o overlap Hormuz threat duct forced to revise the possible alternative traffic . United Arab Emirates promise to work at an accelerated pace and in June, that is, six months earlier, to put into operation the pipeline "Fujairah", able to take on the transportation of 1.5 million barrels of oil. It is also planned to overhaul the land transport system, then it will be possible to bypass the supply of about 9.5 million barrels.
o But first , this is only a little more than half the power flow of Hormuz, secondly , Iran could block the flow in January. Talking about alternative ways to compensate for the inability of Hormuz traffic flow, it should be added that in addition to the oil flow comes through liquefied natural gas from Qatar and Iran up to 130 million cubic meters daily, not to mention the mainstream of non-oil foreign trade of the Gulf, which is being held here.
o U.S. promises in any case avoid blocking the flow . Although the military forces of Iran undoubtedly inferior U.S., Tehran set very aggressively. The commander of the Revolutionary Guards, General Jaafari said that Iran can fight and win "asymmetrical warfare." Planned mining duct attack tankers speedboats and boats laden with explosives.
o Iranian media are active propaganda, telling of impressive achievements in the development of various types of weapons, especially missiles. Even if these data are exaggerated, you should pay attention to the fact that the curved duct for 200 kilometrovprekrasno sweep on three sides with the Iranian territory. This has been proven thirty years ago during the Iran-Iraq war, when tankers could pass through Hormuz duct only under escort U.S. warships.
o As already mentioned, most suffer from overlapping duct eastern consumers -primarily China and Japan, forcing these countries to take the position that protects its main supplier. EU countries will suffer less because oil transported through Hormuz duct is only 10% of the oil consumed by them. But overlap duct hit in the first place in the southern EU countries, which are now, and so on the verge of default.
Russia certainly is in this case advantageous position. According to the most moderate predicted overlap flow of Hormuz and the subsequent decrease in supply of Arab oil to the world market would drive oil prices to $ 300 per barrel.
o However, it should also be borne in mind that long-term oil starvation can trigger a new round of global economic crisis and then the winners in this war will not be simple. On the clearance of the duct can be spent too much time, so that the oil skyrocketed in price, also may drop sharply due to the strong industrial decline.
o must pay tribute to the Government of Iran, which has taken a lot of fairly reasonable moves from improving its image in the world . Moreover, Tehran has taken care to attract to their side strong politically and economically allies, in particular Russia. Engaging Russia, a traditional ally of Iran, was the most successful course .
o Evidence -concern the Western media, reproached Russia in connivance with Tehran`s nuclear program recall that the first nuclear power plant built Iran is Russian. Furthermore, in support of Iran is considered by the Russian government and the direction of Russian warships in the Mediterranean Sea .
But most worrisome help break the economic blockade in the form of a proposal by Moscow to Tehran mutual settlements in national currencies of both countries . West, Bloomberg reports that such a proposal was made by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Dmitry Medvedev at a meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan.
o This assistance is regarded as the first and a very good shot at not yet started the war . The problem is not to improve the economic situation in Iran. The fact that it is very, very dangerous precedent, because now the oil trade was conducted exclusively in dollars.
o Countries that depend heavily on oil imports, such as, for example, China, India, Japan, were forced to keep large stocks at the dollar currency. It strongly supported the dollar. If other oil-importing countries will follow the example of Russia and Iran, the U.S. economy will suffer serious losses.
o The Western media called the agreement "the first shot in a future war between Iran and the United States made Russian" .
/ Cherednyk Oksana, topwar.ru /